CNBC Business | Recessionary Winners

Recessionary Winners

For every loser there’s a winner, even in a global downturn, discovers Richard Lofthouse

Stamp Dealers

Most types of collectible are starting to suffer from deflated prices after several years of boom. But rare stamps have not yet succumbed to the trend. One of the biggest players in the global stamp collecting industry, Universal Philatelic Auctions, hammered down nearly 13,000 lots on January 13th for a record £441,000, (€463,000). Auctioneer Andrew McGavin said that in his 35 years of experience in the industry,“the market is as firm for  good stamps as I can remember.” He added that the internet had helped globalise the industry, making  demand truly international. 

Condom Makers

SSL international, owner of the Durex brand of condom, reported sales up 23% and profits up 39% late last year, a result generated partly by couples staying in more and going out less. Raising its dividend and confidently looking ahead to the rest of this year, it might be the ultimate defensive play in a recession.  

Comfort Food Producers 

Scottish sausage skin producer Devro reports growing demand for its core product citing thrifty consumers cutting back on expensive cuts of meat in favour of the banger. The company said it would increase capacity this year to stay ahead of demand. Meanwhile, supermarkets have reported surging sales of comfort foods such as custard, pies and puddings. Like for like sales of custard in the UK over the last six months have increased by 20%. Supermarket giant Tesco recently reported a 62% jump in sales of rice pudding. McDonalds Europe reported a 7% surge in sales last November amid plans for further expansion.

Pawnbrokers

Consignment shops and pawnbrokers are thriving as indebted consumers seek to raise short-term cash with private goods as the collateral. H&T Group, formerly Harvey & Thompson, has 105 UK stores — almost a third of them in London — and predicts a 50% rise in profits this year based on rocketing demand late last year. H&T typically charges a punitive 8% per month on cash advances. 

Small Premium  Cars and Bicycles

It wasn’t all doom and gloom among car makers. Sales of Daimler’s tiny Smart topped 24,600 for 2008, with December almost a quarter higher than November. Over the course of last year, BMW registered a 4% fall in sales yet saw a 28.6% rise in demand for the diminutive Mini. However the real winners were bicycle retailers who are experiencing significant growth from commuters who are ditching cars and public transport for a cheap, private solution. UK trade body the Association of Cycle Traders recently reported sales up 3.6% in the last quarter of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. The result was achieved in spite of prices being raised due to the weak pound and increased raw materials costs, and without margin-sapping discounts.

Video Game Consoles, Smartphones and iPods 

Apple confounded analysts by easily beating their downbeat forecasts for the last months of last year. The company reported total sales of $10.17bn (€7.9bn), up from $9.61bn in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts had been expecting sales of $9.74bn (€7.5bn). Actual profits were $1.78 (€1.38) per share instead of the predicted $1.39 (€1.07) per share. Sales of both iPods and Macs rose, but the real winner was the iPhone, whose like-for-like sales rose to 4.4 million from 2.3 million. Although rival Microsoft announced 5,000 job losses, a slump in PC sales masked record demand for the Xbox 360 gaming console, 6 million units of which were sold during the quarter. This represented a year-on-year sales increase of 3%. The other technology company to come up trumps in the recession so far is Nintendo. Sales of its Wii gaming console and handheld DS product have been booming all over the world. The boss of Nintendo Korea, Mineo Koda recently noted: “Regardless of downturns, consumers pursue something fun. Sales of our products do not depend on whether the economy is good or not, but whether we introduce fun products or not.” UK video game sales increased by 23% last year, compared to losses of 20% in music CDs and music downloads. 

Superheroes  at the  box office

According to Media by Numbers, a box office tracking company, box office takings in the US last year were down less than 1% over 2007, qualifying the movie business as one of the most recession-proof sectors. As usual in downturns, superheroes ruled the day, ranging from Batman’s The Dark Knight or newcomers like second-largest moneymaker Iron Man. Escapist animation flicks delivered tasty profits too — among the top grossers were Wall-E, Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. This year will be just as flooded with superhero movies, including The Spirit, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, G.I. Joe and, this month — probably one of the most anticipated comic book-to-movie adaptations ever — Watchmen, based on Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons’ award-winning, 12-volume comic book series. Seeming to confirm the escapist trend, London’s theatre district reported box office receipts up 3% last year and remains upbeat about 2009, likely to be buoyed by euro tourists taking advantage of the weak pound. 