By David O’Byrne

Only two years ago, Turkey’s traditionally complex and fractious political scene looked to have taken on an uncharacteristic stability.

With the moderate Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan re-elected in a landslide victory and with the economy booming, confidence was running at unprecedented levels. However, in Turkey nothing is ever that simple.

Within a year the AKP found itself wrestling with both the global financial crisis, which was devastating the country’s export driven industries, and a legal case opened by a rogue prosecutor, allegedly backed by Turkey’s powerful military, to have the party closed down for ‘undermining the country’s secular constitution’.

Somewhat predictably, the lawsuit failed; somewhat less predictably, it was followed within months by allegations that the military itself had been plotting to overthrow the government by force.

Little over a year on, what has become known as the ‘Ergenekon conspiracy’ has swelled to cover unsolved assassinations and bombings and has resulted in the arrest and indictment of dozens, including senior military personnel, academics, columnists and politicians. Just to confuse matters, in November it became apparent that police involved in the investigation had tapped the phones of senior members of the judiciary, apparently with the permission of the interior and justice ministries.

That revelation quickly sparked rumours of the opening of a second legal attempt at forcing the closure of the AKP. Arguably not the best time for the country’s biggest media group Doğan Holding, whose newspapers toe a fiercely anti-government line, to receive a surprise demand for around €2.2bn in back taxes. A demand which Doğan alleges is politically motivated, but the government strongly denies.

If nothing else, 2010 promises to be an interesting year, albeit one which few expect to resolve a conflict that has split the country into two competing groups of conspiracy theorists, and a larger group of disillusioned Turks struggling to survive the economic crisis.

Some relief though may be at hand witheconomists predicting a gradual export-led recovery on the back of increased demand from Europe, with GDP expected to grow by around 2.5%.

With Turkey’s political opposition bitterly divided and woefully lacking credibility, most predict that a moderate economic recovery will be sufficient for Erdoğan to call an early general election and be re-elected with a reduced majority.

A result which most Turks hope will encourage a return to a level of normality, and a retreat from the brinksmanship of the past two years.