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Power Plays

Vladimir Putin considers his next move

Record oil prices have helped strengthen Vladimir Putin’s grip on the state, writes Thomas Ország-Land

ALL CHANGE When Dmitry Medvedev (left) succeeds Vladimir Putin as president, Putin is expected to become prime minister This is a story of two tough, taciturn men in their prime, both passionately devoted to power and in charge of billions of dollars worth of investment in Arctic oil, Caspian pipelines, nuclear reactors and port and shipping infrastructures.

One of them is President Vladimir Putin of Russia, 55, a professionally faceless former secret-police officer of the sort still crawling in the shadows of Soviet-disciplined Russia, who is expected to take over soon as prime minister. The other is Dmitry Medvedev, 42, chief of the state conglomerate Gazprom, who has proven his loyalty to the Kremlin and has been picked by Putin as its next head.

The declared aim of their partnership is to make their country great by projecting its power as the world’s dominant energy supplier. Both men are capable of springing a treacherous surprise. Their story could end in tears if they should turn against each other.

This matters a lot to the world beyond Russia. This country is the largest natural gas producer in the world, with exports recently increased by 8.04% a year to 152.48bn cubic metres. It is also the world’s second largest oil producer.

The dependence of the European Union on Russian crude oil supplies increased from 9% to 25% of its total imports during the decade to 2006. The EU now also imports a quarter of its natural gas supplies from Russia. And Putin’s Kremlin has demonstrated its preparedness to deploy its economic muscle in pursuit of its geopolitical interests.

The deeply conservative Russian electorate wants its rulers to reign forever. But Putin, who commands phenomenal, genuine popularity, must quit the Kremlin this spring at the end of his two four-year terms, the maximum length of continuous power allowed by the country’s constitution. So he has chosen Medvedev to keep his throne warm for him.

In an unusually candid address delivered to the annual Russian-German business forum, Putin recently promised perpetual continuity in government by entrusting the presidency to “a decent, capable and modern person with whom I can work as a team”.

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