In any case, Mabro argues, “There is no crunch. Europe is very well supplied in gas. You have Holland, Norway, Algeria, Libya soon, or perhaps already, plus Russia. There is also spot gas coming from Qatar and Egypt.” Wood MacKenzie’s Reid appears to agree: “We have significant infrastructure increasing over the next ten years. In terms of supply coming into Europe, there’s not really an issue there.”

“By 2020,” comments Srinivasan of CERA, “we see the possibility of flat or declining demand… because of improvements in efficiency in gas use and the greater use of other technologies to generate electricity.”

Nuclear and coal could provide some alternatives to gas, but given the long lead times it takes to build nuclear power plants and to develop “carbon capture” technologies for coal and other fossil fuels, such alternatives will take at least a decade to appear, industry consultants point out. Sustainable fuels, such as solar and wind, need much more research and development to make a significant impact in European demand. While they won’t provide an answer in the short term, they could become a valuable investment for the longer term, the consultants add.

But there is one other factor that could help Europe to promote its energy security, as well as minimising the effect of higher gas prices. “Energy efficiency is the best source of energy we have,” Eni’s Scaroni told his audience in Rome. “It immediately reduces energy demand, imports, investments and CO₂ emissions. It is readily available, clean and generally costs nothing.” In addition, “it puts money in consumers’ pockets.” By making some simple adjustments to “our way of life, we could save a third of our incremental gas imports between now and 2020.”

Whatever the future, gas crunch or not, businesses and consumers in the EU would be well advised to heed Scaroni’s words.

WORLD RESERVES OF NATURAL GAS