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December 2007
Art & Books
Arts & Books
The Decline and Fall of the British Empire 1781-1997 Piers Brendon.
Microtrends
The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big ChangesMark J Penn with E. Kinney Zalesne
Allen Lane, €30, ISBN 1846140420
In Microtrends, Penn, a veteran pollster and Bill Clinton's lead strategist, aims to illustrate how small patterns in behaviour, sometime involving as little as 1% of the population, can transform a business, swing an election or create a movement in its own right.
He strives to show that a microtrend is not merely a development, but a growing interest group with needs and desires which are unmet by politics or business. Microtrends previously defined by Penn include 'soccer moms', busy suburbanites who intuitively dislike state meddling but who will nevertheless vote for politicians if they believe that the drip-drip of social interventionism will protect their kids. (Clinton profited from this hugely in the last decade.) This book explores and highlights 75 other microtrends – small, under the radar forces which may affect America's future.
Take the growth of single women US households, which have risen from 17% two decades ago to around 25%. These women will need to plan for their retirements alone, Penn notes. Similarly, the trend for retired workers to continue working may necessitate tax law changes or a redirection of benefits from maternity leaves to 'winter-off' options. Extreme Commuters – people who travel more than 90 minutes each way to work – may lead carmakers to come up with ever more luxury seat features and 'fast food restaurants… coming out with whole meals that fit in cup holders'. The growth of stay-at-home workers may generate a need for changed zoning laws or more security for residences doubling as home offices.
Subtle shifts in culture as much as economics will affect politics. American pro-Semites, for instance: the growing number of people who want to date Jewish men and women (11% of J-Date members are non Jews). Penn points out that in 1939, a Roper poll found that 53% of respondents thought Jews should be restricted. In 2006, a Gallup poll found the 54% had positive views of Jews, higher than any other religious group mentioned. Also interesting is the number of high-achieving, highly-integrated Muslims who live in America – a stark contrast to Muslims in so-called more tolerant and sophisticated Europe.
Penn whizzes through many areas of business, culture, technology, diet, politics and education, amusingly coining groups such as Impressionable Elites, Caffeine Crazies, Neglected Dads, Unisexuals (not as much fun as it sounds) and America's Home-Schooled.
Microtrends will probably just attach cute labels to social changes you are already familiar with and, unlike Steven D Levitt's bestseller Freakonomics, it makes little attempt to discover why the changes have occurred. But that is not the point; it is an easily digestible manual with lots for policy makers and entrepreneurs to think about. BF
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